2021 TBI World Hockey Rankings

Finland, Germany rise while the U.S., Latvia drop

Well, it’s been awhile! I’ve been a little busy. In June, I launched another Substack called The Writ, which focuses on Canadian politics, and then there was that Canadian election in August and September.

But now that I’ve had some time to recover, it’s time to get The Big Ice going again.

So, I’m returning today with an update to my World Hockey Rankings, which I introduced back in August 2020. They aren’t based on wins or losses, but on goal differential. That’s because there’s a big difference between winning games by small margins and blowing out the competition on a regular basis — there’s more to assessing how good a hockey nation than just wins and losses, particularly when tournaments are so short. I explained the rationale in more detail in last year’s piece, but here’s the nitty-gritty about the rankings:

In the chart below, I’ve ranked teams by their average goal differential (GD) per game over the last eight world hockey championships. The chart also shows the ranking according to goals-for per game (GF/G), goals-against per game (GA/G) and the current IIHF world ranking (along with, for good measure, the top scorer on each national team since 2013). Rankings are coloured when they are higher (green) or lower (red) than a team’s goal differential ranking.

So, here it is:

Let’s break these results into tiers, starting with the top two nations.

1st tier: Canada and Russia

Canada and Russia remain the best performers at the world hockey championship, holding their respective first and second ranks. The countries average 4.2 goals per game, at least 0.5 more goals than any other country, and average fewer than two goals against. Only Finland also averages less than two goals against per game. With a goal differential of +2.64 for Canada and +2.45 for Russia, the two countries at the top clearly are the top performers.

We saw just how effective the Canadian national team can be in Riga, when they came back from an awful start to the tournament to emerge with the gold medal. This was a team that would not have even met the NHL’s minimum salary cap — yet they were able to pull off victories at the end of the tournament when it really counted. And so, they are still at the top of the table, with three golds and two silvers over the last eight years.

The Russians scored a lot of goals in Latvia and let in very few, but were eliminated in the quarter-finals. That’s not winning when it counts. But the Russians are nevertheless consistently good at the world championship.

2nd tier: Sweden

That used to be the case for Sweden, too, until the country failed to qualify for the playoffs in the 2021 tournament. But with the exception of that blemish, the Swedes are a cut above the rest, though not quite at the level of Canada or Russia. Their average goal differential for the last eight years is +1.65, nearly a goal-per-game lower than both Canada and Russia, but still a fair bit above the next tier of countries.

The Swedes have strong goal-scoring at 3.7 goals per game and good defence at 2.1 goals against. They can usually rely on a contingent of top-flight Swedish NHL talent to augment a squad of KHLers and SHLers, two high-quality leagues.

With their poor performance in Riga, the Swedes have dropped to seventh in the IIHF world rankings — which seems a little absurd. Would you really take Germany (fifth) over Sweden in an international hockey tournament, even if it isn’t best-on-best?

3rd tier: Finland, United States, Czech Republic

The next tier features three countries which tend to run hot or cold. They are locks to make the playoffs, but in the last eight years these three countries have each had a negative goal differential in one tournament. The Finns have been the most successful, with one gold and three silvers, but the Americans have also won four bronze. Shockingly, the Czechs are medal-less over the last eight years.

Finland’s stock-in-trade is defence. With just 1.9 goals against per game, only Canada and Russia allow fewer goals per game. But Finland is just the sixth-rated offensive nation, with 3.1 goals per game. It gives them a goal differential of +1.24 per game, roughly even with the United States’ +1.22 goals per game. The Americans have the fourth-best offence at 3.6 goals per game, but the sixth-best defence at 2.4 goals against.

The Czechs have the fifth-rated offence and defence, with a goal differential of +1.03, ranking them sixth overall.

The Americans have dropped a spot since 2020, while the Finns have jumped to fourth in the rankings. Finland has been really good in international tournaments of late, regardless of how many NHLers they have on their squad. The fact that the Finns can medal with only one or two (often low-impact) NHLers is remarkable, and perhaps explains how they can be so consistent from one tournament to the next. It isn’t about the name on the back of the jersey.

The United States and Czech Republic vary from tournament-to-tournament. For the Americans, it is always about who can be convinced to make the trip, though the country has been better at putting together interesting rosters in recent years. For the Czechs, they usually get a few good NHLers, but the European-league players can vary in their ability to deliver. The Czech team in Riga, for example, was not as good as I thought it could be.

4th tier: Switzerland

The Swiss now sit alone in the fourth tier — they were joined by Slovakia in 2020 — as just outside the Big Six but clearly better than the rest. Their goal differential is +0.56, so they are the last nation to average a positive differential. Neither their goal scoring (3.0 goals per game, ranking seventh) nor defence (2.5 goals against, also ranking seventh) is particularly elite, but it is respectable.

Switzerland does seem to be coming on — they’ve had two silvers in the last eight years — and their allotment of NHLers seems to be getting bigger every year. They’ve been successful in getting a few of them to suit-up in each tournament, always giving the Swiss at least one or two lines of offensive threats. Their National League players are also pretty reliable and effective. You can’t rule out the Swiss in any championship, but they aren’t quite in with the big boys yet.

5th tier: Slovakia, Germany, Latvia

In the next tier, we have the three nations that are always in contention for a playoff spot and can always rely on one or two NHLers to put on the national colours. Slovakia is holding on to eighth spot with a goal differential of -0.50 per game, but Germany is up one spot to ninth at -0.69, pushing Latvia down to 10th at -0.75.

Neither Latvia nor Germany are big scoring nations — they are tied for the eighth-best defence at 3.0 goals against per game while their offence is limited at 2.2 and 2.3 goals per game, respectively. Slovakia is better at putting the puck in the net at 2.6 goals per game, but their defence (3.1 goals against) ranks them 11th, below Denmark.

Slovakia is not the same hockey country it was at the turn of the century, when their best players had still gotten their start in the old Czechoslovakian system. But they are producing a few prospects, which means they have a steady stream of decent talent that keeps them out of the basement.

Latvia is a hockey-mad country that punches above its weight more than anyone else, but is just too small to produce superstars. Instead, they produce solid, reliable players that also keep them out of the basement year after year.

Germany, though, is the up-and-comer. Their hockey program has been getting better and they are starting to produce some great talent. In addition to Leon Draisaitl, the Germans can look to rising stars like Moritz Seider, Tim Stützle, Lukas Reichel and John Peterka. The DEL is getting more competitive, too, so don’t be surprised if the Germans continue to move up the rankings and work themselves into that tier with the Swiss.

6th tier: Denmark, France, Kazakhstan, Norway

Now we move on to the lower tiers, including this tier which is just above relegation — or at least regular relegation, as both the French and Kazakhs have spent time in Division 1A.

Norway is the big faller here, dropping three spots to 14th in the rankings, as France moves up one spot to 12th and Kazakhstan leaps two spots (this year’s biggest mover) to 13th. The Danes are holding 11th. These four counties lose their games by an average of 0.98 to 1.41 goals.

Denmark is the country to watch in this group, and one that could move up into the fifth tier. The Danes are starting to produce some legitimate NHL stars, like Nikolaj Ehlers and Oliver Bjorkstrand. And they have some young players making their debuts in the NHL, too. But the problem for Denmark is there is a bit of a drop-off between their NHLers and former NHLers (Nicklas Jensen and Peter Regin, for example) and the rest of their national roster, largely made-up of players playing in Sweden, Germany or Denmark.

France has been on the outs for awhile after being relegation in 2019. They may be on the decline as they seem to have few prospects, though they usually produce a decent player every few years — Alexandre Texier is the latest. If they work their way out of Division 1A next year, they shouldn’t be one you’d expect to ride the elevator again.

That’s usually been the case for Kazakhstan, but their outstanding performance in the 2021 championship should give them hope. They are still relying too heavily on ex-pats, but they do have a few good homegrown talent like Nikita Mikhailis, currently sixth in KHL scoring, and their ex-pats (Curtis Valk, Darren Dietz and Jesse Blacker) are among the KHL leaders, too.

Norway dropped a lot in these rankings, but I think that is a reflection of their middling performances in recent years. Usually, the Norwegians are able to skate pretty well with the tier of countries just below the Big Six, but that has looked more difficult in recent tournaments. Their string of appearances at the world championships might be in danger in the future.

Relegation tier: Belarus, Slovenia, Hungary, Austria, Great Britain, Italy and South Korea

And now we’re in the rest. These are the countries that fight for promotion or against relegation every year. They lost their games by about two goals or more, on average, rising to as many as three (Great Britain), four (Italy) or six (South Korea) goals per game.

Hungary, Slovenia and South Korea are the nations we see the least at this level, while Belarus is the best of the bunch. They’ve put up a few bad tournaments in recent years, though, which could signal problems going forward. On the plus side, they have some good young players in Yegor Sharangovich, Danila Klimovich and Alexei Protas, among others. Maybe things will get better.

Austria and Italy usually swap spots every tournament, but I think Austria is the better hockey nation overall. They do produce NHL prospects (like Marco Rossi) and have a good domestic league in the ICEHL. The Italians do not produce prospects, instead relying heavily on Italian Canadians.

Great Britain is the interesting one, though. It was a big deal when they qualified in 2018, stayed up in 2019 and played well enough to avoid relegation again in 2021, even if relegation wasn’t happening because of the pandemic. They work hard and it means a lot for them to be at the big table. They have a prospect in Liam Kirk, currently playing for the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL. I’m not sure if Great Britain can keep this up — their core is on the older side — but I’m certainly rooting for GB.

Rankings with Division 1A

It’s harder to assess the nations at the bottom since, with the exception of Belarus, they’ve played fewer than 30 games at the world championships over the last eight years. So, let’s do the same exercise but zero-in on the goal differential in the Division 1A tournament for those nations who have played more games in that tournament than they have in the world championship since 2013.

With these rankings, there are a few obvious differences. Kazakhstan drops from 13th to 19th and Hungary from 17th to 21st, with other countries moving up one or two slots accordingly. We also add a few other countries to the rankings who have made appearances in Division 1A but haven’t qualified for the world championship over the last eight years: Poland, Ukraine, Japan and Lithuania.

Kazakhstan’s strength, though, stands out here. They are the only Division 1A team to have a positive goal differential at +1.96. That means, relative to their Division 1A competition, they are the equivalent of being somewhere between Russia and Sweden at the world championship — a team to fear. By comparison, South Korea, Hungary and Poland are more like a Slovakia or Germany: tough but not dominant by any stretch.

Now, these rankings are only based on the world hockey championship and not the Olympics. In the international hockey world, though, that is where attention will now turn — including here on The Big Ice!